Nigeria lost crude oil valued at a staggering N8.41tn to theft and metering deficiencies between 2021 and July 2025, according to the latest data sourced from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Although the regulator celebrated recent progress in reducing daily losses to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years, experts warn that the cumulative economic toll remains devastating and exposes governance failures in the oil sector.
NUPRC’s analysis showed that Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels of crude in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels between January and July 2025.
Using Statista’s average Brent crude prices, these losses translate to: $2.66bn in 2021 (37.6m barrels at $70.86 each); $2.11bn in 2022 (20.9m barrels at $100.93 each); $355.7m in 2023 (4.3m barrels at $82.49 each); $330.3m in 2024 (4.1m barrels at $80.56 each); and $146.5m in January–July 2025 (2.04m barrels at $71.79 each).
In total, the losses amounted to $5.61bn, equivalent to N8.41tn at the current exchange rate of about N1,500/$. To put this into perspective, the stolen value could have built 56,074 primary health centres (at N150m each); funded 129,401 classroom blocks (at N65m each); and constructed 10,191 kilometres of roads (at N825m/km).
By comparison, the Federal Government allocated just N1tn for 468 road projects in the 2025 budget—barely one-eighth of the value of oil losses in four and a half years. The N8.41tn also exceeds the entire N2.48tn health budget and nearly triples the N3.52tn education budget for 2025.
Experts warn
Energy experts, however, said the sheer scale of past losses highlights the massive development opportunities squandered. United States–based oil and gas consultant Chukwuma Atuanya said while the reduction to 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025 represents progress, Nigeria still lags behind its production targets.
“The country still needs an additional 400,000 bpd to reach the 2 million bpd target by December 2025. Losses of 9,600 bpd are still significant,” he said. Atuanya credited improvements to intensified military operations, metering upgrades, unmanned surveillance systems, and community involvement. Yet, he warned that theft continues to sap foreign exchange earnings, undermine budgets, weaken the naira, and scare away investors.
“Oil theft causes massive revenue losses and budget underperformance. It fuels currency devaluation and economic instability. It also discourages investment, since uncertainty over actual export volumes undermines confidence,” he explained.
He also noted the environmental and social costs. “Pipeline vandalism and illegal refining cause severe environmental degradation, increase poverty, displace communities, and worsen insecurity in the Niger Delta,” he said.
Atuanya argued that zero theft is unattainable but could be reduced to “tolerable levels” through stricter penalties, prosecution of complicit officials, and deeper host community involvement.
While regulators celebrated progress, not everyone is convinced. Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law scholar at the University of Lagos, questioned the accuracy of NUPRC’s figures, citing weak metering and reporting systems.“It may well be 2.04 million barrels; it may be double that. We simply do not know,” he said.
Ayoade stressed that theft largely occurs in onshore and shallow-water assets, not deep offshore, making accurate measurement even more complex.
He accused security agencies of failing to hold perpetrators accountable. “Security forces burn illegal refineries but fail to arrest and prosecute the masterminds. There is nobody in jail for these crimes, despite trillions lost. This points to systemic complicity,” he said.
The don argued that without deterrent punishment, oil theft will persist. “Until we start jailing people—including complicit security officials and politicians—this cycle will continue. Governance failure lies at the root of the problem,” he added.
NUPRC celebrates progress
Despite the staggering cumulative losses, the regulator highlighted recent improvements. In July 2025, daily crude oil losses were down to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest since 2009, when they stood at 8,500 bpd.
“Between January and July 2025, losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 bpd. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that plagued the industry,” NUPRC stated.
For comparison, losses in 2024 stood at 4.1 million barrels at 11,300 bpd, while 2021 recorded the worst figures in two decades at 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 bpd daily.
NUPRC linked the progress to reforms introduced after the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) came into force in 2021, along with new technologies, stricter monitoring, and community engagement strategies.
Oil theft debate
The debate over crude oil theft in Nigeria underscores a paradox: while the scale of losses has dropped dramatically since 2021, the cumulative toll continues to rob the country of transformative development opportunities.
The NUPRC points to improved monitoring, reforms under the PIA, and technology deployment as signs of lasting progress. But experts argue that real change requires systemic reforms—stronger governance, transparency, community buy-in, and prosecution of offenders.
For a nation heavily reliant on crude oil, which accounts for over 90 per cent of foreign exchange earnings, the stakes remain high. Losses of even 10,000 barrels per day not only strain government finances but also erode investor confidence, exacerbate insecurity, and deepen poverty.
As Nigeria works toward its 2 million bpd production target for 2025, the government faces dual challenges: sustaining recent progress while addressing the governance and security lapses that allowed trillions to vanish unchecked.
Experts agree that oil theft may never be eradicated, but it can be reduced to manageable levels. However, this requires transparent metering and reporting systems, host community participation in protecting infrastructure, stricter enforcement and jail terms for offenders, and political will to confront powerful interests profiting from theft.
The N8.41tn already lost stands as a stark reminder of what is at stake. That sum could have revolutionised Nigeria’s healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Instead, it vanished into a shadowy economy of theft, vandalism, and complicity.
As Professor Ayoade put it, “How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”
By Dare Olawin
SOURCE PUNCH NEWS
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